ECB Study Finds AI Has Yet to Significantly Affect US Jobs or Wages

AI's Broader Labor Market Impact Remains Limited

A study published by the European Central Bank (ECB) indicates that the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence has not yet produced significant changes in overall employment levels or wage growth across the United States.

Growing investment in AI has fueled concerns that automation could replace workers, reduce hiring opportunities, and widen income disparities. However, the latest findings suggest that these effects have remained limited at the aggregate level.

Job Shifts Emerging Across Occupations

According to the ECB, the US labor market has been adapting to AI-driven changes for several years. Employment has gradually shifted away from occupations considered more vulnerable to AI substitution and toward roles that face lower automation risks.

The study found that jobs with higher exposure to AI replacement grew at a slower pace between 2019 and 2025 than occupations with lower exposure. Employment in highly exposed professions, including roles such as economists and graphic designers, declined during the period.

Meanwhile, occupations viewed as less susceptible to AI substitution, including electricians and high school teachers, recorded employment growth.

Workforce Composition Changing

As a result of these trends, the share of lower-risk occupations within total US employment increased over the study period, while the proportion of higher-risk jobs declined modestly.

Despite these labor market shifts, researchers found little evidence that AI exposure has materially influenced wage growth since 2019.

Future Effects Still Possible

The ECB noted that the long-term impact of AI remains uncertain. As AI technologies continue to evolve and become more capable, particularly through generative AI tools, the effects on incomes and employment patterns could become more noticeable in the years ahead.