AI Disruption Could Push 11 Million US Workers Into New Occupations by 2035, McKinsey Reports

A widespread jobs apocalypse may not be the primary danger facing American employees over the coming decade. Instead, the critical hurdle will center on guiding millions of displaced individuals into new occupations, according to research conducted by McKinsey & Co.

The analysis projects that roughly 11 million US workers—representing about 7% of the current domestic labor market—could need to pivot to alternative occupations by 2035 due to artificial intelligence. Historically, approximately 215,000 American employees change occupations each year; this shift could cause that annual churn rate to triple over the next ten years. Navigating this change will prove steep, with six out of seven transitioning workers expected to require substantial retraining alongside potential wage reductions during the shift.

"Job opportunities can be abundant and yet leave millions of workers without work if those positions require different skills, credentials, locations or pay structures than current jobs."

The study highlights that displacement pressure is heavily clustered across three primary segments:

• Office and Administrative Support (including customer service representatives)
• Retail and Sales (such as cashiers and store staff)
• Transportation and Logistics (such as warehouse and material handling workers)

Lower-income personnel face disproportionate exposure, with projections showing them nearly eight times more likely to be forced into role transitions compared to higher-earning counterparts. Depending on corporate AI implementation speeds and demographic shifts like an aging populace, overall occupational switch estimates range between 6 million and 16 million individuals.

The anticipated transition velocity mirrors the workforce disruption witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, while the pandemic disruption spanned two years, the AI transformation will need to be sustained across an entire decade. With conventional education models targeted primarily at entry-level youth, the report calls for local and federal interventions, including subsidized adult reskilling programs and clearer labor market data to bridge the widening gap.